Sunday, April 02, 2006

4/3 - MLB Opening Day

Opening day really should be a national holiday. I hope 2006 turns out to be very special.


Monday, the minor league rosters should start to filter out.

In honor of the Big Leaguers Opening Day, I thought I’d analyze the lineup that Willie Randolph said he would use in the opener. The lineup read: Reyes, Lo Duca, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, Nady and then Hernandez. I’ve put Diaz, who’s deserves to play this year, in the chart below as well. The OBP, SLG are the weighted mean projections from Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecasting system. Essentially, they’re a “best guess.” MLVr is Marginal Lineup Value, Rate. My favorite way to think about it is that it represents the number of runs a hitter could be expected to contribute above replacement level per game.

OBP

SLG

MLVr

Reyes

0.317

0.397

-0.068

Lo Duca

0.328

0.374

-0.086

Beltran

0.365

0.479

0.122

Delgado

0.378

0.525

0.198

Wright

0.385

0.530

0.233

Floyd

0.359

0.485

0.113

Nady

0.332

0.448

0.021

Diaz

0.329

0.466

0.037

Hernandez

0.309

0.351

-0.157

Why is Lo Duca batting second? He projects to have the third lowest OBP of the starters, the second lowest SLG and the second worst overall production by MLVr. Why not move the Beltran through RF section of the lineup up a spot, and drop Lo Duca to seventh?

The Mets announced late last week that Minor League Field Coordinator Tony Tijerina will be the interim manager in Norfolk to begin the season while Ken Oberkfell recovers from complications surrounding surgery. He originally had surgery on February 15th to remove blood clots in his leg and had a second procedure “to alleviate discomfort” (per the Tides Website) on March 23rd. Tijerina has been in the Mets organization for 16 years, including six as a minor league player.